Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3012 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3012 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:35	DAL 07:45	4%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 198 Southwest Flight history →	IND 20:25	DAL 21:35	29%	9%	0.6%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → DAL 11:45WN 931	7h 05m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:20 → HOU 06:45WN 4645	1h 15m Houston	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	4h 50m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365	1h 55m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	6h 30m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111	55m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486	4h 00m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 29m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:20 → PHX 07:00WN 4137	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	7h 05m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	6h 30m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 56m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	IND 16:45 → AUS 18:15WN 2110	50m Austin	AUS 19:05 → DAL 20:10WN 2134	4h 25m	70%	49%
Southwest Details →	IND 16:10 → MCO 18:40WN 3271	55m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → DAL 21:20WN 1419	6h 10m	74%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON