Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4626 IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4433 IND 21:13 → DCA 22:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4626 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	DCA 07:50	4%	1%	0.7%	83%
AA 4434 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:31	DCA 11:18	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 4352 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:36	DCA 09:26	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
AA 4407 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:26	DCA 16:16	12%	4%	0.7%	52%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:07	DCA 19:09	14%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 4433 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 21:13	DCA 22:59	14%	4%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON