Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1365 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 1365 IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1064 IND 19:15 → DEN 20:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1365 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:10	DEN 06:50	3%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 08:00	DEN 08:51	7%	2%	0.5%	84%
WN 2118 Southwest Flight history →	IND 09:35	DEN 10:15	7%	1%	0.5%	94%
WN 2119 Southwest Flight history →	IND 13:10	DEN 13:50	13%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 2821 United Flight history →	IND 15:22	DEN 16:12	16%	5%	0.5%	76%
WN 4826 Southwest Flight history →	IND 14:55	DEN 15:35	20%	5%	0.5%	72%
F9 2347 Frontier Flight history →	IND 20:53	DEN 21:48	20%	6%	0.7%	79%
WN 1064 Southwest Flight history →	IND 19:15	DEN 20:05	27%	6%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON