Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5846 IND 16:00 → DTW 17:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3879 IND 14:18 → DTW 15:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5846 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 16:00	DTW 17:20	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 5827 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:30	DTW 18:51	10%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 3879 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 14:18	DTW 15:36	13%	6%	0.6%	78%
DL 4924 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 06:40	DTW 07:55	8%	4%	3.6%	92%
DL 4897 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 07:47	DTW 09:03	9%	6%	1.4%	91%
DL 4875 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 10:30	DTW 11:45	18%	10%	1.4%	82%
DL 5034 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 19:36	DTW 20:55	28%	15%	1.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON