Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4645 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4645 Southwest Flight history →	IND 05:20	HOU 06:45	3%	1%	1.3%	94%
WN 2124 Southwest Flight history →	IND 20:20	HOU 21:50	22%	5%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133	3h 15m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	7h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 50m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:20 → PHX 07:00WN 4137	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833	7h 20m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 08:25 → HOU 10:40WN 4158	6h 00m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111	50m Nashville	BNA 08:00 → HOU 10:05WN 532	4h 05m	93%	85%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:35 → DAL 07:45WN 3012	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 11:30 → HOU 12:45WN 19	7h 10m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 15m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 15m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 20:19 → DFW 21:44AA 1945	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	4h 37m	74%	55%
Southwest Details →	IND 16:10 → MCO 18:40WN 3271	55m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → HOU 21:05WN 4493	5h 55m	74%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON