Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4631 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day AA 4631 IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4456 IND 17:05 → JFK 19:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4631 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:10	JFK 09:29	4%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 4592 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:28	JFK 14:49	8%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:05	JFK 19:28	14%	6%	0.9%	70%
DL 4932 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 06:51	JFK 09:00	9%	4%	2.9%	91%
DL 4976 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 12:52	JFK 15:15	20%	8%	4.8%	80%
DL 4984 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 17:15	JFK 19:39	24%	15%	8.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON