Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2125 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2125 IND 07:15 → LAS 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4753 IND 20:00 → LAS 20:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2125 Southwest Flight history →	IND 07:15	LAS 08:10	6%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 2126 Southwest Flight history →	IND 13:00	LAS 13:55	17%	4%	0.5%	81%
WN 3184 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:20	LAS 17:15	26%	9%	0.6%	73%
WN 4753 Southwest Flight history →	IND 20:00	LAS 20:55	28%	8%	0.6%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365	50m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	5h 25m	81%	75%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:45 → MCI 14:15WN 4887	1h 15m Kansas City	MCI 15:30 → LAS 16:35WN 2286	5h 50m	94%	74%
Southwest Details →	IND 14:55 → DEN 15:35WN 4826	1h 00m Denver	DEN 16:35 → LAS 17:35WN 1563	5h 40m	80%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON