Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 598 IND 07:00 → LAX 08:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3201 IND 16:21 → LAX 17:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 598 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	LAX 08:27	16%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 861 Delta Flight history →	IND 17:25	LAX 18:45	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 3201 American Flight history →	IND 16:21	LAX 17:45	21%	7%	0.6%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	6h 10m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAX 10:30WN 991	6h 30m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:20 → PHX 07:00WN 4137	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	6h 00m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON