Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5771 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 5771 IND 06:10 → LGA 08:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 5646 IND 17:55 → LGA 20:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5771 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:10	LGA 08:15	5%	2%	0.9%	96%
AA 4797 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:20	LGA 08:30	5%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:50	LGA 11:00	9%	2%	0.8%	84%
DL 5660 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:05	LGA 10:12	9%	2%	0.8%	87%
AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:23	LGA 14:33	12%	4%	0.9%	71%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:46	LGA 16:57	16%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 4437 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:27	LGA 19:39	20%	7%	1.0%	67%
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:55	LGA 20:11	21%	8%	1.0%	72%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 11:10	LGA 13:14	24%	4%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON