tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4887 at 13:45, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4887 Southwest Flight history → IND 13:45 MCI 14:15 15% 4% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111 1h 05m Nashville BNA 08:15 → MCI 09:55WN 4289 3h 55m 97% 92%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133 1h 05m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCI 09:30WN 2808 3h 45m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MCI 10:05WN 4215 5h 25m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365 1h 50m Denver DEN 08:40 → MCI 11:15WN 1584 6h 05m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35AA 2782 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44AA 3661 · flown by Envoy 6h 43m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 2h 20m Chicago ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29UA 1484 5h 29m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → IND 10:35 → ORD 11:00AA 4443 · flown by Republic 3h 58m Chicago ORD 14:58 → MCI 16:49AA 4745 · flown by Republic 7h 14m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908 6h 21m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IND 20:10 → ORD 20:37UA 3657 · flown by Republic 48m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 4h 07m 66% 51%
AmericanDetails → IND 13:36 → DFW 15:03AA 1955 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:50 → MCI 17:27AA 922 4h 51m 71% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON