Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2129 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2129 IND 05:10 → MCO 07:25 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1540 IND 18:32 → MCO 21:02 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2129 Southwest Flight history →	IND 05:10	MCO 07:25	2%	1%	0.8%	95%
WN 2130 Southwest Flight history →	IND 09:10	MCO 11:25	8%	3%	15.5%	88%
F9 4454 Frontier Flight history →	IND 10:53	MCO 13:19	16%	7%	15.7%	85%
WN 121 Southwest Flight history →	IND 21:20	MCO 23:45	21%	8%	16.7%	50%
WN 3271 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:10	MCO 18:40	23%	9%	15.5%	71%
WN 4537 Southwest Flight history →	IND 18:45	MCO 21:10	25%	10%	15.6%	70%
F9 1540 Frontier Flight history →	IND 18:32	MCO 21:02	29%	13%	17.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON