Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2133 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2133 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:45	MDW 06:55	3%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 961 Southwest Flight history →	IND 17:40	MDW 17:55	18%	6%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	6h 20m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113	2h 20m Baltimore	BWI 09:35 → MDW 10:35WN 4217	5h 55m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 01m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:20 → HOU 06:45WN 4645	1h 25m Houston	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	6h 20m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:35 → DAL 07:45WN 3012	2h 20m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → MDW 12:20WN 1357	6h 45m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 08m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:45 → MCI 14:15WN 4887	1h 50m Kansas City	MCI 16:05 → MDW 17:30WN 9	4h 45m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:10 → MCO 07:25WN 2129	1h 45m Orlando	MCO 09:10 → MDW 10:55WN 4037	6h 45m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	IND 16:10 → MCO 18:40WN 3271	55m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → MDW 21:25WN 2660	6h 15m	74%	35%
Southwest Details →	IND 19:25 → TPA 21:40WN 2140	50m Tampa	TPA 22:30 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 4035	5h 45m	63%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON