Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2308 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2308 American Flight history →	IND 06:00	MIA 08:50	8%	2%	1.2%	92%
AA 926 American Flight history →	IND 18:40	MIA 21:28	41%	12%	1.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 02m	98%	85%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	1h 26m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	6h 00m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → MIA 13:37DL 2129	6h 37m	96%	82%
American Details →	IND 05:36 → ORD 06:00AA 4362 · flown by Republic	59m Chicago	ORD 06:59 → MIA 11:12AA 835	5h 36m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 08:00 → MIA 12:00WN 2464	5h 15m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 07m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → MIA 11:00WN 3278	5h 20m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	5h 48m	96%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 19:10 → PHL 21:09AA 1957	46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 42m	56%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON