Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4362 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4362 IND 05:36 → ORD 06:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1951 IND 19:51 → ORD 20:29 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4362 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:36	ORD 06:00	3%	2%	0.9%	94%
UA 3479 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	ORD 06:20	3%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4597 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:40	ORD 07:30	6%	2%	0.9%	84%
AA 4443 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 10:35	ORD 11:00	6%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 3539 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:00	ORD 08:22	7%	2%	0.9%	87%
UA 3534 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 10:45	ORD 11:05	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 3661 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:00	ORD 07:21	8%	2%	0.9%	83%
UA 3427 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:19	ORD 15:47	11%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 3596 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IND 15:33	ORD 15:58	15%	6%	1.1%	81%
AA 2898 American Flight history →	IND 12:17	ORD 12:39	16%	6%	1.6%	79%
UA 5419 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 13:35	ORD 13:57	20%	7%	1.4%	64%
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:10	ORD 20:37	21%	5%	0.9%	76%
UA 2680 United Flight history →	IND 16:25	ORD 16:48	21%	6%	0.9%	64%
UA 5435 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:33	ORD 19:00	23%	9%	1.8%	64%
AA 1951 American Flight history →	IND 19:51	ORD 20:29	29%	8%	1.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON