Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4613 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4613 IND 07:50 → PHL 09:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1957 IND 19:10 → PHL 21:09 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4613 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:50	PHL 09:46	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 5209 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 10:58	PHL 12:56	10%	4%	1.7%	64%
AA 2847 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	PHL 08:55	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 13:36	PHL 15:37	14%	6%	1.4%	81%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 16:49	PHL 18:49	18%	8%	1.8%	69%
AA 1957 American Flight history →	IND 19:10	PHL 21:09	27%	7%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON