Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4137 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4137 IND 06:20 → PHX 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3078 IND 19:11 → PHX 19:49 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4137 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:20	PHX 07:00	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
AA 1773 American Flight history →	IND 06:01	PHX 06:44	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 2136 Southwest Flight history →	IND 21:15	PHX 22:00	27%	9%	0.7%	57%
AA 3078 American Flight history →	IND 19:11	PHX 19:49	27%	10%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON