tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IND 14:40 RDU 16:25 24% 16% 2.0% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → IND 05:36 → ORD 06:00AA 4362 · flown by Republic 2h 18m Chicago ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38AA 4354 · flown by Republic 6h 02m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → RDU 11:43DL 2052 5h 48m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113 55m Baltimore BWI 08:10 → RDU 09:30WN 1067 3h 50m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 47m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:40 → ORD 07:30AA 4597 · flown by Republic 2h 00m Chicago ORD 09:30 → RDU 12:49AA 4756 · flown by Republic 6h 09m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:50 → AUS 07:20WN 2108 1h 55m Austin AUS 09:15 → RDU 13:05WN 4516 7h 15m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111 3h 00m Nashville BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40WN 1795 5h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:40 → DTW 07:55DL 4924 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 5h 17m 100% 88%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → IND 19:30 → BNA 19:40WN 1332 55m Nashville BNA 20:35 → RDU 23:15WN 4431 3h 45m 74% 55%
AmericanDetails → IND 19:10 → PHL 21:09AA 1957 51m Philadelphia PHL 22:00 → RDU 23:34AA 3125 4h 24m 66% 51%
SouthwestDetails → IND 18:45 → MCO 21:10WN 4537 55m Orlando MCO 22:05 → RDU 23:55WN 2690 5h 10m 68% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON