tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2137 at 13:40, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2137 Southwest Flight history → IND 13:40 RSW 16:05 29% 9% 9.8% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 56m Dulles IAD 08:15 → RSW 10:53UA 1406 5h 18m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 6h 27m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28UA 2358 3h 51m Houston IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361 8h 52m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → IND 07:00 → ORD 07:21UA 3661 · flown by Republic 3h 14m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 7h 44m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:16 → MSP 17:10DL 2912 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268 7h 36m 97% 71%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → RSW 11:00WN 1082 5h 20m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → IND 05:36 → ORD 06:00AA 4362 · flown by Republic 50m Chicago ORD 06:50 → RSW 10:45AA 2433 5h 09m 94% 68%
UnitedDetails → IND 13:35 → ORD 13:57UA 5419 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Chicago ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618 6h 59m 96% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON