tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4891 Southwest Flight history → IND 11:35 SAN 12:45 22% 5% 0.6% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 2h 26m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 24m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 13m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712 8h 39m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365 1h 25m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 6h 30m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 56m Dulles IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930 8h 03m 97% 82%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:50 → AUS 07:20WN 2108 2h 45m Austin AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435 8h 05m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 13m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IND 19:59 → SFO 21:47UA 2799 55m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 7h 32m 72% 52%
DeltaDetails → IND 17:15 → JFK 19:39DL 4984 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 20:29 → SAN 23:43DL 685 9h 28m 72% 48%
SouthwestDetails → IND 16:20 → LAS 17:15WN 3184 50m Las Vegas LAS 18:05 → SAN 19:20WN 1288 6h 00m 58% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON