Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 625 Alaska Flight history →	IND 07:04	SEA 08:52	17%	3%	0.7%	81%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	IND 17:19	SEA 19:09	23%	8%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	1h 41m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101	9h 16m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 07:25 → AUS 09:03DL 4015 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Austin	AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684	9h 20m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 18m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 40m	99%	86%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	8h 44m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 45m	99%	84%
United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	8h 38m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 16:49 → PHL 18:49AA 5592 · flown by PSA	46m Philadelphia	PHL 19:35 → SEA 22:56AA 3259	9h 07m	73%	53%
United Details →	IND 17:26 → IAH 19:08UA 1420	47m Houston	IAH 19:55 → SEA 22:42UA 2456	8h 16m	73%	51%
Southwest Details →	IND 19:15 → DEN 20:05WN 1064	1h 05m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	6h 55m	75%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON