Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 500 United Flight history →	IND 06:00	SFO 07:42	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 2799 United Flight history →	IND 19:59	SFO 21:47	27%	10%	0.6%	22%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116	7h 19m	97%	85%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa	1h 16m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 44m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 09m	98%	82%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	2h 56m Dulles	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	10h 27m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	55m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 25m	95%	81%
American Details →	IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29AA 4631 · flown by Republic	1h 00m New York	JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149	9h 44m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	7h 54m	99%	79%
United Details →	IND 07:00 → ORD 07:21UA 3661 · flown by Republic	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543	9h 14m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 19:51 → ORD 20:29AA 1951	51m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → SFO 00:02 +1AA 3054	7h 11m	65%	41%
Southwest Details →	IND 21:15 → PHX 22:00WN 2136	50m Phoenix	PHX 22:50 → SFO 00:55 +1WN 1098	6h 40m	62%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON