tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 518 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 518 Southwest Flight history → IND 05:00 TPA 07:15 3% 1% 16.5% 97%
WN 2140 Southwest Flight history → IND 19:25 TPA 21:40 30% 12% 15.4% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic 1h 11m Chicago ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326 5h 24m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 3997 · flown by Mesa 1h 41m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683 5h 57m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120 5h 20m 98% 73%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133 2h 20m Chicago MDW 09:15 → TPA 12:50WN 2907 6h 05m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → IND 05:50 → AUS 07:20WN 2108 1h 20m Austin AUS 08:40 → TPA 12:05WN 411 6h 15m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227 4h 12m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → TPA 14:13DL 2696 7h 13m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → IND 08:00 → ORD 08:22UA 3539 · flown by Republic 2h 57m Chicago ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834 7h 12m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → IND 16:05 → ATL 17:40WN 2107 50m Atlanta ATL 18:30 → TPA 20:05WN 245 4h 00m 74% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON