Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2141 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2141 ISP 06:00 → BWI 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2145 ISP 17:50 → BWI 19:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2141 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 06:00	BWI 07:15	4%	2%	0.8%	91%
WN 4584 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 09:10	BWI 10:25	5%	2%	0.8%	95%
WN 2143 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 12:30	BWI 13:45	11%	2%	0.7%	79%
WN 921 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 15:05	BWI 16:20	17%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 2145 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 17:50	BWI 19:05	24%	7%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON