Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4646 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4646 ISP 05:20 → MCO 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 847 ISP 16:48 → MCO 19:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4646 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 05:20	MCO 07:55	4%	2%	11.3%	83%
F9 3941 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 10:57	MCO 13:50	16%	11%	17.6%	77%
B6 547 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 11:31	MCO 14:25	17%	11%	18.5%	77%
WN 104 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 18:05	MCO 21:00	24%	12%	17.3%	58%
B6 847 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 16:48	MCO 19:44	25%	16%	17.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON