Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ISP 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 2141	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → MYR 09:55WN 2997	3h 55m	97%	91%
Southwest Details →	ISP 12:30 → BWI 13:45WN 2143	3h 20m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367	6h 05m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	ISP 15:05 → BWI 16:20WN 921	3h 50m Baltimore	BWI 20:10 → MYR 21:45WN 4220	6h 40m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON