Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 445 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet that day B6 445 ISP 07:00 → PBI 09:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 545 ISP 14:40 → PBI 17:33 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 445 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 07:00	PBI 09:51	17%	7%	1.4%	92%
WN 2147 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 11:10	PBI 14:00	21%	6%	6.1%	88%
B6 545 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 14:40	PBI 17:33	39%	18%	6.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON