Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 3355 at 19:46, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 3355 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 19:46	TPA 22:46	26%	14%	13.1%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ISP 06:00 → BWI 07:15WN 2141	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 08:30 → TPA 11:00WN 1120	5h 00m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	ISP 17:50 → BWI 19:05WN 2145	2h 15m Baltimore	BWI 21:20 → TPA 23:55WN 4578	6h 05m	96%	68%
Southwest Details →	ISP 09:10 → BWI 10:25WN 4584	3h 25m Baltimore	BWI 13:50 → TPA 16:20WN 1121	7h 10m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	ISP 12:30 → BWI 13:45WN 2143	3h 20m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → TPA 19:45WN 1997	7h 15m	99%	63%
Southwest Details →	ISP 15:05 → BWI 16:20WN 921	2h 50m Baltimore	BWI 19:10 → TPA 21:55WN 1123	6h 50m	95%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON