Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2148 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2148 ITO 06:00 → HNL 07:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 1081 ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2148 Southwest Flight history →	ITO 06:00	HNL 07:00	2%	1%	0.7%	100%
WN 2149 Southwest Flight history →	ITO 08:00	HNL 09:00	4%	2%	0.7%	100%
AS 1001 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 06:00	HNL 06:54	7%	2%	1.1%	93%
WN 2150 Southwest Flight history →	ITO 11:45	HNL 12:45	8%	2%	1.1%	91%
WN 2151 Southwest Flight history →	ITO 15:30	HNL 16:30	10%	4%	1.1%	91%
AS 1011 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 07:35	HNL 08:29	10%	3%	1.2%	91%
WN 2152 Southwest Flight history →	ITO 18:55	HNL 19:55	11%	5%	0.7%	91%
AS 1021 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 09:26	HNL 10:20	20%	5%	1.1%	89%
AS 1061 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 14:59	HNL 15:55	24%	7%	1.6%	80%
AS 1031 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 11:27	HNL 12:22	26%	5%	1.9%	75%
AS 1121 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 20:45	HNL 21:39	26%	8%	0.9%	75%
AS 1051 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 13:59	HNL 14:54	26%	8%	1.4%	70%
AS 1111 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 19:44	HNL 20:38	27%	7%	1.0%	73%
AS 1071 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 15:45	HNL 16:39	27%	7%	1.6%	74%
AS 1101 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:49	HNL 19:43	29%	6%	1.0%	77%
AS 1091 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 17:59	HNL 18:52	30%	8%	1.2%	61%
AS 1081 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 16:47	HNL 17:40	31%	10%	1.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON