tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 1019 at 08:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1019 Alaska Flight history → ITO 08:30 OGG 09:10 10% 3% 0.8% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ITO 06:00 → HNL 07:00WN 2148 1h 05m Honolulu HNL 08:05 → OGG 08:50WN 574 2h 50m 100% 95%
SouthwestDetails → ITO 15:30 → HNL 16:30WN 2151 4h 00m Honolulu HNL 20:30 → OGG 21:20WN 508 5h 50m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → ITO 11:45 → HNL 12:45WN 2150 3h 05m Honolulu HNL 15:50 → OGG 16:35WN 1932 4h 50m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → ITO 08:00 → HNL 09:00WN 2149 3h 20m Honolulu HNL 12:20 → OGG 13:10WN 1930 5h 10m 100% 87%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 06:00 → HNL 06:54AS 1001 1h 08m Honolulu HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046 2h 43m 96% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011 2h 30m Honolulu HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076 4h 06m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 15:45 → HNL 16:39AS 1071 2h 51m Honolulu HNL 19:30 → OGG 20:12AS 1206 4h 27m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 13:59 → HNL 14:54AS 1051 3h 33m Honolulu HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186 5h 09m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081 47m Honolulu HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186 2h 21m 44% 34%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 14:59 → HNL 15:55AS 1061 48m Honolulu HNL 16:43 → OGG 17:24AS 1156 2h 25m 45% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON