Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3023 American Flight history →	JAC 11:02	CLT 17:10	22%	7%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 12m	98%	83%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → EWR 13:14UA 1548	1h 47m Newark	EWR 15:01 → CLT 17:10UA 3533 · flown by Republic	8h 10m	95%	79%
American Details →	JAC 16:32 → LAX 18:03AA 5011 · flown by SkyWest	3h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 21:41 → CLT 05:24 +1AA 2199	10h 52m	98%	78%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633	6h 12m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	7h 44m	96%	77%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	2h 27m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	7h 26m	95%	74%
United Details →	JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → CLT 17:59UA 5757 · flown by SkyWest	8h 29m	95%	72%
American Details →	JAC 13:43 → ORD 18:05AA 1974	2h 49m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	8h 16m	88%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAC 15:39 → ORD 20:07AA 3282	47m Chicago	ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976	6h 20m	66%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON