Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1978 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1978 JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 531 JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1978 United Flight history →	JAC 07:00	DEN 08:40	12%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 2170 United Flight history →	JAC 10:35	DEN 12:13	13%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1717 United Flight history →	JAC 13:42	DEN 15:18	18%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 2791 United Flight history →	JAC 14:44	DEN 16:21	20%	7%	0.6%	65%
UA 531 United Flight history →	JAC 16:23	DEN 18:00	23%	7%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON