tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1548 at 07:00, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1548 United Flight history → JAC 07:00 EWR 13:14 19% 7% 1.4% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:00 → MSP 10:26DL 3931 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 53m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAC 12:33 → ORD 16:43UA 2357 3h 24m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 9h 06m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 3h 52m Denver DEN 19:10 → EWR 01:04 +1UA 2767 9h 22m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423 7h 00m 92% 76%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 09m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:31UA 2811 2h 44m Los Angeles LAX 12:15 → EWR 20:49UA 2227 10h 49m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032 2h 45m Chicago ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329 8h 30m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:13UA 2170 3h 22m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 54m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:31UA 2811 49m Los Angeles LAX 10:20 → EWR 19:04UA 2127 9h 04m 60% 46%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → SFO 09:26UA 336 54m San Francisco SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03UA 713 9h 03m 65% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON