tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:31UA 2811 2h 23m Los Angeles LAX 11:54 → IAH 17:22UA 2086 8h 22m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531 3h 10m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 7h 18m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 09m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAC 12:33 → ORD 16:43UA 2357 3h 19m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 9h 26m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:13UA 2170 3h 22m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 7h 35m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 47m Denver DEN 18:05 → IAH 21:36UA 2791 6h 54m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032 2h 35m Chicago ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 8h 50m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 7h 22m 96% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAC 15:39 → ORD 20:07AA 3282 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144 7h 12m 72% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON