Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2032 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2032 JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 3282 JAC 15:39 → ORD 20:07 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2032 United Flight history →	JAC 07:30	ORD 11:40	15%	6%	1.1%	84%
UA 2357 United Flight history →	JAC 12:33	ORD 16:43	19%	6%	0.9%	74%
AA 1974 American Flight history →	JAC 13:43	ORD 18:05	28%	9%	0.8%	65%
AA 3282 American Flight history →	JAC 15:39	ORD 20:07	28%	9%	0.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON