Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	5h 28m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	JAC 07:00 → MSP 10:26DL 3931 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	7h 24m	90%	76%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	2h 35m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	JAC 18:05 → SLC 19:15DL 417	3h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202	6h 44m	98%	74%
United Details →	JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:13UA 2170	3h 42m Denver	DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281	7h 45m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SAN 15:56DL 1210	5h 28m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	5h 51m	98%	72%
United Details →	JAC 07:30 → ORD 11:40UA 2032	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683	8h 55m	89%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAC 15:39 → ORD 20:07AA 3282	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 21:10 → SAN 23:26AA 2457	8h 47m	72%	50%
American Details →	JAC 13:43 → ORD 18:05AA 1974	55m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → SAN 21:22AA 1924	8h 39m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON