tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3363 at 12:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3363 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → JAC 12:00 SEA 13:22 14% 6% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 09m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:31UA 2811 2h 12m Los Angeles LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36UA 325 7h 36m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424 7h 21m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → JAC 18:05 → SLC 19:15DL 417 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 00:01 +1DL 2998 6h 56m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:13UA 2170 1h 47m Denver DEN 14:00 → SEA 16:00UA 2164 6h 25m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531 3h 10m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 47m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817 6h 00m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 6h 18m 98% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → SFO 09:26UA 336 49m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → SEA 12:34UA 2192 5h 34m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON