tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3208 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → JAC 13:11 SFO 14:49 24% 14% 0.9% 75%
UA 336 United Flight history → JAC 08:00 SFO 09:26 33% 17% 0.8% 15%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:13UA 2170 3h 34m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 55m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 04m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531 3h 10m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 7h 33m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 36m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 58m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → LAX 09:31UA 2811 3h 54m Los Angeles LAX 13:25 → SFO 14:53UA 372 7h 53m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → JAC 18:05 → SLC 19:15DL 417 3h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 47m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 23m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088 5h 44m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAC 16:04 → DFW 19:58AA 883 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28AA 2228 7h 24m 67% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON