Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4470 JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2282 JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4470 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 11:28	SLC 12:38	10%	5%	0.6%	95%
DL 4022 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 07:40	SLC 08:50	12%	5%	0.7%	91%
DL 417 Delta Flight history →	JAC 18:05	SLC 19:15	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 2282 Delta Flight history →	JAC 13:15	SLC 14:22	13%	4%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON