Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 14:31	AUS 16:25	21%	6%	1.2%	82%
WN 4860 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 13:15	AUS 14:45	30%	5%	0.9%	34%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 08:00 → AUS 10:10WN 4149	4h 50m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	4h 57m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	JAX 05:35 → HOU 06:50WN 2162	2h 35m Houston	HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270	5h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	99%	86%
American Details →	JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12AA 1171	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	100%	85%
United Details →	JAX 07:20 → ORD 09:12UA 1733	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	8h 21m	97%	84%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → AUS 12:15AA 1419	6h 57m	99%	84%
American Details →	JAX 09:11 → DFW 10:53AA 1537	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	6h 49m	100%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 19:15 → MDW 20:45WN 2164	50m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 775	5h 55m	66%	47%
Southwest Details →	JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50WN 2161	55m Denver	DEN 19:45 → AUS 23:05WN 4463	6h 45m	64%	44%
American Details →	JAX 19:37 → MIA 20:57AA 3605 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Miami	MIA 22:10 → AUS 23:59AA 1427	5h 22m	66%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON