Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1181 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1181 JAX 06:55 → BWI 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2159 JAX 19:30 → BWI 21:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1181 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 06:55	BWI 08:50	4%	1%	0.7%	91%
WN 979 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 11:00	BWI 12:55	10%	3%	0.8%	86%
WN 2158 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 14:15	BWI 16:10	17%	5%	0.9%	78%
WN 2159 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 19:30	BWI 21:25	29%	8%	1.8%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON