Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1834 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1834 JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1999 JAX 18:11 → CLT 19:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1834 American Flight history →	JAX 06:18	CLT 07:45	8%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 1989 American Flight history →	JAX 09:21	CLT 10:50	13%	3%	1.5%	92%
AA 2001 American Flight history →	JAX 13:44	CLT 15:15	22%	6%	1.1%	69%
AA 1991 American Flight history →	JAX 20:17	CLT 21:50	26%	6%	1.5%	56%
AA 1999 American Flight history →	JAX 18:11	CLT 19:45	27%	7%	2.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON