tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4585 at 14:50, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4585 Southwest Flight history → JAX 14:50 DAL 16:15 29% 6% 1.1% 61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441 4h 51m 98% 89%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 05:35 → HOU 06:50WN 2162 1h 10m Houston HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8 4h 35m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155 1h 15m Nashville BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486 4h 40m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115 5h 24m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 07:45 → MDW 09:05WN 1384 3h 15m Chicago MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757 7h 50m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512 6h 22m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → JAX 11:48 → ATL 13:04DL 2356 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780 7h 06m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → JAX 11:00 → BWI 12:55WN 979 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932 6h 15m 95% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON