Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5552 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5552 JAX 06:00 → DCA 08:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1982 JAX 19:09 → DCA 21:06 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5552 American flown by PSA Flight history →	JAX 06:00	DCA 08:10	8%	4%	1.4%	83%
AA 4340 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 14:39	DCA 16:46	16%	5%	1.4%	50%
AA 949 American Flight history →	JAX 11:49	DCA 13:44	17%	6%	0.9%	89%
AA 1982 American Flight history →	JAX 19:09	DCA 21:06	33%	9%	3.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON