Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 671 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 671 JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2161 JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 21% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 671 United Flight history →	JAX 08:09	DEN 09:55	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1762 United Flight history →	JAX 15:23	DEN 17:07	20%	8%	1.0%	71%
WN 2161 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 17:20	DEN 18:50	35%	9%	0.9%	21%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JAX 11:48 → ATL 13:04DL 2356	51m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	5h 10m	81%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON