Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2789 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2789 JAX 05:52 → DFW 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1980 JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2789 American Flight history →	JAX 05:52	DFW 07:40	5%	2%	1.0%	91%
AA 1171 American Flight history →	JAX 07:24	DFW 09:12	8%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 1537 American Flight history →	JAX 09:11	DFW 10:53	12%	4%	1.2%	87%
AA 1975 American Flight history →	JAX 11:31	DFW 13:11	16%	5%	0.9%	85%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	JAX 14:25	DFW 16:12	22%	8%	1.3%	57%
AA 1980 American Flight history →	JAX 19:41	DFW 21:25	30%	8%	3.0%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON