tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2333 Delta Flight history → JAX 11:47 DTW 14:08 9% 4% 0.8% 90%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history → JAX 18:22 DTW 20:45 16% 6% 2.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155 3h 20m Nashville BNA 10:10 → DTW 12:45WN 507 6h 25m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → DTW 10:10DL 2160 4h 40m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16UA 1434 1h 39m Dulles IAD 12:55 → DTW 14:34UA 3495 · flown by Republic 5h 14m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453 1h 16m Houston IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa 6h 37m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 5h 56m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:05 → JFK 09:29DL 4959 · flown by Endeavor 3h 30m New York JFK 12:59 → DTW 15:00DL 2343 7h 55m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → DTW 13:01AA 1781 6h 43m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → JAX 07:10 → ORD 08:58AA 2102 1h 32m Chicago ORD 10:30 → DTW 13:04AA 3498 · flown by Envoy 5h 54m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAX 20:17 → CLT 21:50AA 1991 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370 4h 24m 74% 56%
AmericanDetails → JAX 18:11 → CLT 19:45AA 1999 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419 4h 23m 73% 53%
UnitedDetails → JAX 18:35 → ORD 20:34UA 6012 · flown by SkyWest 46m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 5255 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 37% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON