Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2673 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2673 JAX 06:24 → EWR 08:48 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 758 JAX 19:09 → EWR 21:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2673 United Flight history →	JAX 06:24	EWR 08:48	5%	2%	0.9%	95%
UA 1144 United Flight history →	JAX 09:35	EWR 11:59	9%	3%	1.4%	88%
UA 2796 United Flight history →	JAX 16:48	EWR 19:12	31%	12%	1.1%	60%
UA 758 United Flight history →	JAX 19:09	EWR 21:29	34%	11%	2.0%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON