Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2162 at 05:35, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2162 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 05:35	HOU 06:50	4%	1%	1.9%	100%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 15m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 08:00 → HOU 10:05WN 532	4h 45m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	JAX 07:45 → MDW 09:05WN 1384	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	6h 05m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 10m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	JAX 06:55 → BWI 08:50WN 1181	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 10:00 → HOU 12:15WN 956	6h 20m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:48 → ATL 13:04DL 2356	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 34m	100%	80%
American Details →	JAX 05:52 → DFW 07:40AA 2789	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	7h 24m	100%	79%
American Details →	JAX 09:11 → DFW 10:53AA 1537	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25AA 1980	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 15m	74%	54%
Southwest Details →	JAX 19:15 → MDW 20:45WN 2164	55m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → HOU 00:15 +1WN 954	6h 00m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON