Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1434 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1434 JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G4 407 JAX 15:55 → IAD 17:56 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1434 United Flight history →	JAX 09:20	IAD 11:16	6%	3%	1.2%	90%
UA 2826 United Flight history →	JAX 11:48	IAD 13:44	6%	4%	0.8%	89%
G4 407 Allegiant Flight history →	JAX 15:55	IAD 17:56	22%	13%	1.4%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON