Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1384 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1384 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 07:45	MDW 09:05	6%	2%	0.8%	95%
WN 2164 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 19:15	MDW 20:45	23%	7%	2.0%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155	3h 55m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	7h 00m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 56m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	JAX 05:35 → HOU 06:50WN 2162	1h 20m Houston	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	6h 05m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	JAX 06:55 → BWI 08:50WN 1181	3h 40m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	7h 35m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:48 → ATL 13:04DL 2356	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 27m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	JAX 11:00 → BWI 12:55WN 979	3h 10m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	7h 10m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 01m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 13:15 → AUS 14:45WN 4860	50m Austin	AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360	5h 50m	66%	48%
Frontier Details →	JAX 18:29 → ATL 20:12F9 3083	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → MDW 22:03F9 2291	4h 34m	53%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON